Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.377494 1.432009 1.488272 1.550842 1.618678 1.690225 1.771684
2026-01-04 1.324152 1.398577 1.477825 1.568997 1.671646 1.784441 1.918882
2026-01-11 1.270488 1.357266 1.451788 1.563328 1.692617 1.839402 2.021125
2026-01-18 1.230823 1.327401 1.434626 1.563941 1.717721 1.897553 2.128239
2026-01-25 1.181032 1.282630 1.397039 1.537313 1.707459 1.911135 2.180080
2026-02-01 1.147527 1.254498 1.376597 1.528703 1.716823 1.947367 2.261000
2026-02-08 1.116822 1.227930 1.356252 1.518377 1.722422 1.977915 2.335363
2026-02-15 1.088609 1.202930 1.336340 1.507029 1.725277 2.004033 2.404495
2026-02-22 1.070498 1.189073 1.328952 1.510301 1.746132 2.053914 2.509321
2026-03-01 1.039279 1.158212 1.299485 1.484212 1.727101 2.048661 2.534066
2026-03-08 1.014440 1.134301 1.277674 1.466787 1.718287 2.056255 2.577381
2026-03-15 0.994037 1.115166 1.261069 1.455209 1.716388 2.072786 2.634691
2026-03-22 0.984928 1.110098 1.262360 1.467508 1.748128 2.139776 2.778264
2026-03-29 0.979462 1.109258 1.268771 1.486525 1.789728 2.223392 2.957420
2026-04-05 0.964652 1.096158 1.258936 1.483223 1.799529 2.260109 3.062005
2026-04-12 0.952872 1.086509 1.253153 1.484995 1.816365 2.308197 3.191376
2026-04-19 0.931282 1.063802 1.229695 1.461669 1.795598 2.296353 3.210948
2026-04-26 0.917303 1.050515 1.218194 1.454382 1.797887 2.320790 3.300205
2026-05-03 0.903302 1.036856 1.205801 1.445349 1.797025 2.339845 3.381039
2026-05-10 0.889523 1.023169 1.192997 1.435256 1.794007 2.354965 3.455594
2026-05-17 0.881561 1.016817 1.189729 1.438392 1.810957 2.403929 3.604844
2026-05-24 0.863657 0.997130 1.168121 1.414725 1.785740 2.380004 3.597531
2026-05-31 0.849362 0.981935 1.152268 1.398896 1.772094 2.375191 3.631234